America’s most flood-prone areas saw 384,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and 2022. This is a 103% increase from the prior two years. These numbers are according to a new report from Redfin. The same trend took also occurred in the places most vulnerable to wildfires and heat. The counties with the highest wildfire risk saw 446,000 more people move in than out over the past two years, a 51% increase from 2019 and 2020.
This is all part of the pandemic homebuying boom and a housing affordability crisis that has pushed Americans into disaster-prone areas.
Flirting with disaster
This study comes from a Redfin analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from First Street Foundation. Redfin analyzed the counties in the contiguous U.S. that rank in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and the top 33% for heat risk.
So, why is this happening?
Remote work and record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic prompted Americans to leave expensive coastal cities like San Francisco and New York for the Sun Belt. People in search of more affordable housing, warm weather and lower taxes moved to states including Florida, Texas and Arizona. This despite the increasing risk from storms, drought, wildfires and extreme heat in the states.
“It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “It’s also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.”
Related: Innovative Ways to Defend Against Climate-Induced Flooding
Many disaster-prone areas are relatively affordable because homebuyers and renters have a larger pool of homes to choose from. America is increasingly building housing in places endangered by climate change. More than half (55%) of homes built so far this decade face fire risk, while 45% face drought risk. By comparison, just 14% of homes built from 1900 to 1959 face fire risk and 37% face drought risk.
New homes are also more likely than older homes to face heat and flood risk.
“The consequences of climate change haven’t fully sunk in for many Americans because oftentimes, homeowners and renters don’t foot the whole bill when disaster strikes,” Fairweather said. “Insurers and government programs frequently subsidize the cost of rebuilding after storms hit. And mortgages mean homeowners are ceding some risk to lenders. Especially if their house goes into foreclosure after a storm. But with natural disasters intensifying and insurers pulling out of disaster-prone areas including Florida and California, Americans may start feeling a greater sense of urgency to mitigate climate dangers—especially if their home’s value is at risk of declining.”
Coastal Florida is a top migration destination
In the past two years, nearly 60,000 more people moved into than out of Lee County, FL. This county includes cities like Fort Myers and Cape Coral, both counties ravaged by Hurricane Ian in September.
Half of homes in Lee County face high flood risk. Still, homebuilders continue to build and homebuyers continue to buy. The Cape Coral metro area has more than made up for the plunge in new listings caused by the storm. And home sales have also rebounded.
“Builders in Cape Coral have not stopped. They’re just building like nothing happened,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Isabel Arias-Squires. “That’s largely because there’s plenty of demand for new homes. Many folks who moved into Florida from the Northeast or the West during the pandemic are leaving, but they’re quickly being replaced by new out-of-staters. Some people just want to be on the water no matter what, and/or they want to move here for family, weather or political reasons.”
