The popular refrain in you hear in Tampa Bay is that the area has not been directly hit by a major hurricane in over 100 years. As the Gulf Coast just south of Tampa Bay recovers from the devastation left from Hurricane Ian, many Tampa Bay residents are breathing an uneasy sigh of relief. We’ve made it through another major that was supposed to come right at us. Let’s take a deeper look at just how often Tampa Bay avoids a direct hit from hurricanes.
The Tarpon Springs hurricane
On October 25, 1921, the Tampa Bay Area suffered the most destructive hurricane to hit the area since the 1800s. A storm surge of up to 11 feet damaged and destroyed many structures along coastal locations from Pasco County south through southwest Florida. The highest storm surge was in the downtown Tampa and Tarpon Springs areas. Waves from the Bay almost reached the streets of Ybor City.
Winds were estimated at 120 mph near the landfall point in Tarpon Springs. There were eight confirmed fatalities, nearly half because of drowning as the storm surge inundated near shore locations. The others from the hazards of the fallen debris like live wires.
Some kind of sweet spot
Since then, the Tampa Bay has remained untouched. Here are some major hurricanes the past 60 years that have just avoided us:
- Gladys 1968 — Made landfall near Homosassa. 6.7 million in damage. Killed 2 people. Absorbed by a cold front and made it all the way to Nova Scotia.
- Elena 1985 — An extremely difficult to predict hurricane that devastated the Apalachicola Bay shellfish industry.
- Erin 1995 — The first hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Erin caused around $700 million in damage, with much of that incurred in Florida.
- Gordon 2000 — Caused much death and destruction in Guatemala and the Yucatán Peninsula. Tampa Bay has minor home damage.
- Frances 2004 — Frances passed over the central sections of Florida, three weeks after Hurricane Charley. Caused significant damage to the state’s citrus crop.
- Irma 2017 — Irma caused widespread and catastrophic damage throughout its long lifetime, particularly in the northeastern Caribbean and the Florida Keys.
In 2004 alone, there were FOUR hurricanes set to hit the area.
*Those of us in school in Tampa remember it with dread and fondness. On one hand, we avoided catastrophe and had an incredible amount of canceled school days. However, many people lost power and much of the state was still affected.
But why Tampa Bay?
The most obvious reason we’ve avoided major hurricane problems — sheer dumb luck. However, that doesn’t stop locals from looking for answers.
Tocobaga folklore
The Tocobaga people are the land ancestors of Tampa Bay. They lived in the area from around 900 to 1500s. The population significantly decreased with the arrival of Europeans (Spanish explorer Pánfilo de Narváez, to be exact) and eventually the tribe was extinct by the 1700s.
Tocobagan Indian Mounds have been found in Safety Harbor and near the Gandy. It’s unclear why the mounds were built, although many believe they were for burials. However, legend has passed down from Tampa resident to Tampa resident — whatever the mounds were for, they somehow offer protection from hurricanes.
It’s a nice myth, giving many Tampa Bay residents believe that we have ancient and otherworldly guardians against hurricane invasions.
Science
There is no found scientific reason hurricanes seem to avoid the area. However, that hasn’t prevented the scientific community from noticing this odd pattern.
Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, noted that only one of five hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher has struck Tampa Bay since 1851.
After the infamous Tarpon Springs hurricane, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report on the 1921 storm:
In general, cyclones moving over the Gulf of Mexico had a tendency of passing well north of Tampa.
Our time will come
Legends and luck are nice stories when it comes to hurricanes, but at some point Tampa Bay will be hit. And it could be bad. Tampa Bay is shallow and many low-lying neighborhoods get flooded during a strong rainstorm.
So while we love the memes of a carefree Tampa:
Make sure to prepare for every hurricane. Those Tocobagan mounds can only hold back so many storms.